A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
